Would Duhan van der Merwe play for the Boks?

At wing? No, probably not.

Duhan van der Merwe is an incredible athlete, but his defensive numbers are disappointing for a man of his stature.

54% tackle success rate, with 0 dominant tackles and 46% ineffective contact is something that would likely raise alarm bells for someone like Jacques Nienaber.

Defensive systems

However, context is always crucial. And with teams playing different defensive systems it is important to know how they impact individual statistics. At a high-level view, South Africa play a very aggressive rush defence and Scotland a more passive drift defence.

Comparing this to the Bok defence, which requires wingers to make split second decisions to either shoot up or turn to cover a backfield kick.

The time between the scrumhalf passing and contact being made with the attacker in these two clips is:

Scot 4.29 secs

SA 2.30 secs

As a general rule (and not an exact science) rush defences tend to miss more tackles than drift defences. As players are more set and prepared to make tackles in a drifting defence. Those split second decisions are crucial, as is having the agility to make micro-adjustments.

For example, since Nienaber arrived at Leinster, they are missing more tackles than they did the previous season.

2023/24 = 18.2 missed tackles per 80 (86% success)

2022/23 = 16.25 missed tackles per 80 (90% success)

(BUT they are also conceding less points now).

This isn't exactly a perfect example as Leinster weren't a drift defence, but they do have a more aggressive rush defence now. And that could be the reason behind having more missed tackles.

It also suggests that if Duhan were in a rush defence, he may miss EVEN more tackles.

Kick Chase

If you were to breakdown the Springboks gameplan into categories, defence and the kicking game would be right at the top of importance.

With the kick chase being crucial, Kolbe's and Arendse's ability to slalom between blocking defenders is unrivalled in its effectiveness.

Although influenced by gameplan, Kolbe and Arendse receive 3 times as many balls/turnovers off kick chases than Duhan vdM.

It isn't just their slaloming ability, but also the incredible height they can get from their leaps and the bravery beyond their size.

Flexible Positions?

I don't believe Duhan van der Merwe has the defensive prowess, kick chase ability and general agility to be a Springbok winger in the current setup.

BUT, what if his positioning was more flexible? Someone like Faf de Klerk is an excellent rush defender.

This would allow Duhan vdM to defend in the tight where less agility and split-second defensive reads are required.

Which if you look at his tackling catalogue, seems to be where he naturally gravitates.

Conclusion

However, with no adjustments being made for the player, I do not believe Duhan vdM would play wing for the Springboks over Kolbe/Arendse.

With the requirements of the rush defence and kick chasing that the Springboks have, Duhan would be a downgrade on the incumbents.