Who will be the next Springbok Hooker?
The search for the next Springbok 2 is underway.
In a recent interview, Rassie Erasmus, the head coach of the Springboks, hinted at the necessity of recruiting fresh talent at Hooker and Lock positions for the upcoming 2027 Rugby World Cup. The concern arises from the aging profiles of the current Locks, and the Hooker position has been a longstanding challenge, even leading up to the recent Rugby World Cup in France.
During the World Cup Final against New Zealand, when Bongi Mbonambi sustained an injury, Deon Fourie was called upon to play 77 crucial minutes at Hooker. Despite Fourie's commendable effort, Erasmus is now focused on developing depth in genuine Hooker options over the next four years, addressing both immediate and long-term concerns for the team.
Hooker Options:
As illustrated above, the age profile of the Springbok Hookers appears to skew towards the older side. Malcolm Marx emerges as the sole player one might confidently expect to maintain a high level of play, securing a spot in the 2027 Rugby World Cup squad. However, there is also an immediate concern, with both Marx and Mbonambi sidelined until June 2024 due to knee injuries.
This scenario could potentially pave the way for the likes of the already capped and in-form Akker van der Merwe to be given an opportunity during the Incoming Test series against Ireland in 2024. Yet, at 36 years-old in 2027, van der Merwe's longevity in the sport may not match the longevity demonstrated by players like Deon Fourie and Duane Vermeulen.
What the numbers say:
When considering the younger Hooker options currently competing in the URC, a select few players distinguish themselves. The following stats delves into their lineout throwing accuracy, a critical metric valued by the Springbok coaching staff. Data via Oval Insights.
In the above graphic, I have highlight 4 key stats and here is why:
% Throws Won - an overall measure of the players accuracy.
% Throws to front - weaker lineout throwers will tend to throw to the front more.
Overthrow - a lost lineout that is often completely down to the thrower.
Not straight - a clear mistake by the thrower.
Johan Grobbelaar comes out as the standout performer, having 95% throw accuracy, a low % of throws to front and no overthrows or not straight lineouts. JJ Kotze and Dan Jooste too show a good set-piece ability, but Jooste had 51.9% of his throws to front compared to just 33.3% from Kotze.
But as we all know, Lineout throwing is only one of the jobs of a Hooker, and their overall statistics will be just as crucial to the Springbok selectors.
In the above illustration, I have ranked players in order of minutes played, but used colours to rank the statistics by excellent numbers (Green), good numbers (Yellow), average numbers (Orange) and poor numbers (Red). The stats have been calculated per 80 mins played, to make a fair comparison.
The standout performers here are Andre-Hugo Venter and, once again, Johan Grobbelaar. Both are consistent, with no poor numbers in any metric and plenty of greens across the board. Venter making 11.86 tackles per 80, with a success rate of 96% and a table topping 1.01 dominant tackles per 80. Venter also tops the contact metres per 80 with 10.09 and is only behind Joseph Dweba in defenders beaten per 80 with 1.01. Grobbelaar’s tackling accuracy of 97% and winning 10 turnovers (0.88 turnovers per 80 mins) stands out amongst the rest.
The raw numbers, without breaking them down per 80 minutes played, can be found below:
Conclusion:
This leaves me to believe that Johan Grobbelaar (25), A-H Venter (22) and JJ Kotze (23) will be frontrunners for a place in the next Springbok squad should their form continue. With the Springbok stalwarts of Marx and Mbonambi having question marks over availability in the series vs Ireland due to injury, and Joseph Dweba having a poor start to the URC this season, one of these players could be both a immediate fix and long-term solution to the Springbok’s Hooker shortages.
This is not to say that Marx, and even Mbonambi, won’t remain the first choice options over the coming 4 years. But new blood will need to be tested to ensure the Springboks don’t suffer the same “makeshift” solution as they did in 2023.
bang hooker Andre-Hugo Venter are reportedly among a group of uncapped youngsters called up to a Springbok alignment camp.
AnalystGus overall I enjoyed the read, thanks for the number crunching and clever categories. It makes sense.
I wonder if you have left out a major role of a Hooker? their namesake, "to hook". Scrumming is one of the major decisions in choosing a Hooker. Maybe we should just say their jersey number, No2.
Also abilities in Mauls.
So yes the No.2 is highlighted by Rassie as a position he wants to have more options in.
One of the problems with descriptive stats is that they do not account for who the No.2 throws to, is it Eben, Lood, Franco and Synman who are good jumpers for example. Which may also impact throw locations.
If all No.2' had the same jumpers and same opposition then you could benchmark and compare, or get them all in the lab and test throws etc.
I noticed you did not include weight, height etc. I am not saying big is good, but some coaches might like a tall loose head and short tight head, if they are of international standard the lopsided angle is a pain for other teams. It would be nice to compare, those variables are comparable.
I noticed that not all names are in all tables, remove players if not in all tables, and just add them in discussion?
I noticed you did not include Deon Fourie or Marco van Staden. Remember it is a team of 23 players. Rassie really has changed the game, not need for two No.2's or two No.9's. In final RWc thye was one No.9. yet four No.9's picked in RWC 33 man squad. So in searching for next No.2's it may not be a fulltime No.2, but more a multiuse player, like Doen who BTW ended up being the on field captain (along with other leaders).
If rugby union under current laws, which favours clinical and innovative defensive structures especially if you players make little to no errors,
if rugby Union is looking like rugby league , then forwards will develop skills usually owned by backs and some backs will play like loose forwards.
Then Rassie has it spot on in having his No.2 (only named this as it is standard nomenclature, it could be No.99 or 87 it does not matter) Deon Fourie who can play hooker, flank. Like Kolbe playing Wing, fullback, half back or Damian de Allende playing 12, 13, and flank.
Imagine your no.2 who can play hooker, flank, centre, wing
Imagine Kwagga Smith as No2!
Then this really opens up bringing on fresh players who can also cover many roles. Half a game each, empty tank, nothing lost in new player but you gain fresh legs and minds.
Under current rugby laws (they may change, and they usually do) turn overs are gold.
Assuming lineout accuracy are similar amongst potentials No.2’s and scrums straight no penalties then the point of difference is turn overs. Speed, technique, fearless, clinical.
Rassie, sometime says maybe not the perfect player but he picks best player for the team. If you can't change the man change the man, it has to be a team player, honest, no entitled or no bumgats, grafters, workers. Someone with a story. Bonus points is you have lived or worked close to Bloem (just joking).
I noticed some extreme outliers - from a data analysis pov these interest me.
Jan-Hendrik Wessels 1.05 in turn overs, other things can be coached.
Dan Jooste 10.1 carries.
A-H Venter 10.06 contact meters 1.01 dominant tackles
Important to realise some teams have different balls carriers which may not be the No.2 - so Jaco Visagie for example, on your stats is not so hot attack but awesome on defence. This may be a team dynamic?
Where do you get data? Can you share .csv file?
All Good.