Who could replace Etzebeth and Co for the Springboks?
What does the next generation have to offer?
For the past six years, the Springbok second-row jerseys have largely been filled by the above four men. All four featured prominently in the 2019 Rugby World Cup Final, and it was likely that the same quartet would have featured in the 2023 RWC Final had it not been for Lood de Jager’s heart condition diagnosis on the eve of the squad announcement, from which he has thankfully recovered.
However, considering that three of the four aforementioned players will be in their mid-thirties by the time the next RWC arrives in 2027, Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus will be seeking to inject some youth into the second-row position. This is certainly not to suggest that none of the current players will be selected for the 2027 RWC, but it is clear that there will be a focus on integrating younger talent into the squad. Below are some of the talents available.
One thing South Africa never lacks is lock forwards. And despite having ten Springbok capped locks playing at the highest levels of professional rugby right now, only four will be 32 years old or younger come the next RWC.
What do the stats show us?
Below, I have compiled the lock statistics for South Africans in the URC who have played over 200 minutes. Ben-Jason Dixon was listed as a lock in the raw data, despite only playing lock once this season. I believe his Springbok hopes lie at blindside flank, so I have excluded him from the discussion. Data provided by Oval Insights.
Before trying to interpret this data, one must first understand that a player's statistics are always influenced by the game plan and player roles. For example, Eben Etzebeth actually has the lowest total ruck entries per 80 minutes out of any lock in the URC, with 11.84. However, we all know he is fit and capable of fulfilling that role. Instead, the Sharks use him for a lot of gain-line carries, where he ranks in the top 10% of locks in the league.
Ruben van Heerden
Of the younger generation, a few locks stand out to me. Ruben van Heerden is one of those, and has been a crucial member of the Stormers team since his arrival. Despite his immense size, he is in the 81st percentile (top 20%) for Total Tackles made per 80 mins and has the best tackle success in the URC with 99% tackle success. He isn’t just an enforcer; he also runs the Stormers' lineout and takes more lineouts than any other Stormers player.
Additionally, he has managed to play the most minutes of any South African lock by a margin, a sign of his durability. He is also known to be a very strong scrummager. Similar to Etzebeth, his role clearly isn’t to get to rucks, and therefore, it isn’t cause for concern. All in all, his first Springbok cap seems to be more a case of 'when' than 'if'.
Ruan Nortje
First capped by the Springboks against Wales in 2022, Ruan Nortje is yet to receive his second cap. He is known for his lineout ability and work rate, both of which shine through in the statistics. His high rate of clean lineout catches and lineout contest wins are no surprise, nor is his total of 29.26 ruck entries per 80 minutes, which puts him in the top 12% in the URC.
While his carries are on the lower side, he is less required to carry when the Bulls have players like Steenekamp, Louw, Hanekom, Coetzee, Gumede, van Staden, and more. More caps are sure to come.
Other prospects
There is another van Heerden who is playing great rugby. At only 23 years old, Emile van Heerden is developing into a very good lineout operator and has an open-play skillset to back it up. Additionally, there is another van Heerden who was not listed in the table of lock options: former Junior Springbok JF van Heerden, who plays for the Bulls. Although he may be someone aiming to be involved in the Bok setup come the 2031 RWC.
Back to the stats, Corne Rahl has some very impressive carrying numbers, with an incredible 34% of his carries being classified as “dominant,” one of the best percentages in the URC. Janko Swanepoel, another tighthead lock like Rahl, also has some very impressive carry figures with high carries per 80, contact meters, defenders beaten, percentage of carries dominant, and crossed gain-line stats. Additionally, Ruan Vermaark was the only South African to steal more lineouts per 80 than Eben Etzebeth, and Adre Smith has the highest percentage of dominant carries of all SA locks. Salmaan Moerat is only behind BJ Dixon and Ruben van Heerden for tackles made per 80.
Conclusion
It is clear that the Springboks have plenty of lock options available to them, each with varied strengths and abilities. One of the key challenges will be ensuring that the legendary lock generation of the past six years passes on as much of their knowledge and experience to the next generation.
I definitely wouldn't bet against a few of the older locks trying to make one more RWC.
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