The South African eighth-man conundrum.
Is it time for someone to make a switch? A detailed analysis.
South Africa has a rich history of producing talented loose forwards, often being the area with the deepest player depth. Yet in recent years, there has been an explosion of young talented eighth-men who are all vying for the same Springbok number-8 jersey.
The position has long been synonymous with Duane Vermeulen’s name, yet in recent years he himself has been usurped by the human freight train that is Jasper Wiese. Wiese’s finer skills have improved exponentially over the past two years, and he is now considered the Springboks' first-choice eighth-man. Vermeulen is still there, of course, but at 36 years old, this Springbok season could be his last.
The incumbent vs the contenders:
The four South Africa teams in the United Rugby Championship (URC) each have a promising, young eighth-man, but none are likely to surpass Wiese in the Springbok pecking order anytime soon. He is only 27 years old, at the peak of his powers, and the statistics support him being the Springbok number one.
This Premiership season, Wiese picked up where he left off at the Leicester Tigers. He amassed 219 carries and beating 54 defenders in his 13 appearances, leading him to win the Players' player of the year award for the 2022/23 English Premiership season.
These aforementioned URC promising players, which includes Elrigh Louw (Bulls), Francke Horn (Lions), Phepsi Buthelezi (Sharks) and Evan Roos (Stormers) are all only 23 years old. And unless they changed positions, would likely spend their entire careers competing against each other. Yet, I believe there is a realistic scenario where they could play alongside each-other.
When comparing the statistics of these up-and-coming eighth-men to Wiese’s, it is clear that none of them currently recreate what he does on the pitch. However, there are areas where these players could offer something different.
Despite having a wealth of eighth-man options, the Springboks have not had a recognised blindside flank option outside of the duo of Pieter-Steph du Toit (30) and Franco Mostert (32) for a number of years. Similarly, Siya Kolisi (31) has been the mainstay at openside flank in this World Cup cycle, with Kwagga Smith (29) as his willing backup.
When looking at what the Springbok coaching staff want from their blindside flank, it is clear that a big part of it is having a genuine third lineout option. In fact, the Springboks have not started a match without either Pieter-Steph du Toit, Mostert or Vermeulen (all great lineout options) playing loose forward since a 32-12 win against Argentina in August 2021. Du Toit averaging over 2 lineout receipts per 80 mins since the 2019 World Cup.
Elrigh Louw and Francke Horn both averaged over 2 lineout receipts per 80 mins this season, with Louw outperforming Horn in terms of tackles made, tackle success, rucks hit (attack & defence), and ball carrying. Areas that would be attractive to the Bok coaches in the post-Du Toit world. Louw was also the lock for the 2019 Junior Springbok team, leading me to believe he could have a future in the Springbok blindside flanker position.
It is slightly more difficult to quantify exactly what the Boks are looking for from their openside flanker, as Kolisi plays a role that cannot be solely measured by statistics. He is, however, the loose forward who hits the most rucks - both on attack and defence. Last year, he had over 1.1 breakdown turnovers per 80 mins and made the most tackles per 80 for the Boks.
Buthelezi's statistics are similar. Among the four young eighth-men, he achieved the highest attacking rucks hit per 80 minutes with 11.74. However, he is not a prolific breakdown “fetcher” and only won 0.16 breakdown turnovers per 80 mins during the 22/23 URC season. I would not be surprised to see Phepsi feature on either side of the scrum in the future.
Roos does not protect the attacking rucks as much, yet he has the best breakdown turnovers per 80 with 0.61. Both he and Buthelezi could be considered openside flanker options in the future, and would offer a lineout jumper option that Kolisi never has. However, it will take time and further development to become as proficient at the breakdown as Kolisi.
What these players could offer that a player like Marco van Staden could not, is a wide-channel runner. Kolisi’s support running in the outside channels has become a strength of his, aiding Springbok attacks using his speed and strength. With Roos and Buthelezi both willing ball carrier’s, and not unfamiliar with playing in the wide-channels, this could be an area they thrive.
It is important to note that each of their franchises has its own structures and game plans, which will influence how the players' statistics appear. However, it is clear that they could fulfil a variety of roles for the Springboks in the future.
There are, of course, plenty of other loose forward and eighth-man options out there. Jean-luc and Dan du Preez have continued to be imperative to the Sale Sharks success, and at only 27 years old they could well be in the running for the 2027 Rugby World Cup. Juarno Augustus (25) has seen a revival in his career since moving to the Northampton Saints and Ruan Ackermann (27) is supposedly being headhunted by England Rugby due to his strong performances for Gloucester.
Sikhumbuzo Notshe, who is soon to turn 30, has been putting his hand up since returning from a long-term injury. Although it may be too little too late for him and the likes of Marcell Coetzee, with both unlikely to be involved this World Cup and the duo being in their mid-thirties come Australia 2027.
I, for one, would not bet against seeing at least two of Louw, Roos, Buthelezi or Horn in the same Springbok loose forward trio in the coming years!
Raw data from Opta. Twitter: @AnalystGus
Ja. The problem in the long run would always be that most of them will never fill that role in the provincial teams due to game plan and player availability. I like all of them but all need to work on things. Buthelezi can be a bit inconsistent, Roos a bit temperamental prone to anger, Louw needs to work on his speed. I think the closest to what we need might be Horn. He seems to be able to do a lot of dirty work and shine when he gets the ball and closest to the complete package, bar a bit of work on turnovers, but then the Lions don’t always expect him to do that. At the moment I will include him above the other for the Championship (and I am not a Lions fanboy)
To replace Siya, someone that does the dirty work, the turnovers and the work in the tramlines are clearly nearly impossible. Most fans dont seem to realise how rare what he does is. We might need to change pur whole aystem to accommodate him retiring.