Springbok Contenders: Which Loose Forwards Dominated the URC Season?

BJ Dixon vs Elrigh Louw, Marco van Staden's Edge, and Hanekom's Potential.

Introduction

As the Springbok season unfolds with crucial tests against Ireland and an upcoming match against Portugal, the competition among loose forwards to earn their place in the national team intensifies. The current Springbok loose forward incumbents—Siya Kolisi (33), Pieter-Steph du Toit (31), Jasper Wiese (28), and Kwagga Smith (31)—have set high standards with their contributions in recent years. However, no player can escape the passage of time, and coach Rassie Erasmus will want to be prepared for the future.

The Contenders

The players listed below have been involved with the Boks squads or alignment camps and have played over 500 minutes in the URC this season, which excludes Mpilo Gumede who only logged 354 minutes - Data via Oval Insights. This group covers different positions and roles, offering a range of skill sets and strengths. To better understand where they fit in, I have colour-coded their stats in this table where:

Green = Excellent | Yellow = Good | Orange = Okay | Red = Needs work

Carrying:

Evan Roos comes out on top across the carrying metrics, with Hanekom close behind. Both players have high carry counts, contact metres, defenders beaten and gainline success percentages. Roos has an astonishing 3.47 defenders beaten per 80 mins, one of the best rates in the URC. Elrigh Louw isn’t far behind though, with his standout ball-carrying stat being his contact metres of 21.06 per 80 minutes. However, his gainline success percentage is significantly lower than his counterparts.

Breakdown:

Marco van Staden comfortably emerges top here, hitting more rucks than anybody else, and making more breakdown turnovers with 0.48 per 80 mins. However, Hanekom isn’t far behind, with 0.42 per 80 mins, all while having fewer opportunities to do so.

Defence:

Arguments can be made for both Dixon and Hanekom of who has the best defensive stats. With Hanekom having an incredible 1.50 turnovers per 80 mins, making 13.38 tackles per 80 with a tackle success of 91% and 0.92 dominant tackles per 80 mins. Dixon’s stats are very similar, but with a significantly lower turnover count of 0.86 per 80 mins and a much high percentage of low tackles with 62%. However, when looking at low tackles, it is always important to take into account that some teams intentionally tackle higher to wrap players up - halting momentum and making offloads difficult.

Discipline:

Discipline is often a cause and effect type scenario. The more a player tackles and attempts to steal at the breakdown, the more likely they are to concede penalties. Therefore, it is no surprise that van Staden concedes the most penalties. Somewhat surprisingly, the fewest penalties conceded is Dixon, despite his high tackle and rucks hit count. Although, he is unlikely to be going for a breakdown steal frequently.

Lineout:

Lineouts are incredibly contextual, but the number of contests a player is involved in is indicative of how realistic they are as a Springbok lineout option. In the recent Bok setup, the primary lineout option among the loose forwards has always been PSDT, with Duane Vermeulen offering another option if needed. Siya Kolisi, on the other hand, is not a lineout option and has never been, meaning van Staden’s lack of jumping is no cause for concern. Dixon and Louw are comfortably involved in the most lineout contests, with good success rates and around 2 clean catches per 80 minutes. However, Buthelezi, Hanekom, and Roos offer similar lineout potential to that of Wiese and Kwagga.

Player Comparisons

How to Read A Radar Chart

Elrigh Louw

Elrigh Louw stands out as a strong contender at both blindside and No.8. His 12.41 carries and 21.06 contact metres per 80 minutes show his ball-carrying quality where he is in the top 90th and 98th percentile respectively. Although, his gainline success rate of 45% only leaves him in the 38th percentile, an area for improvement. His dominant tackles per 80 of 1.16 outshines the rest of his defensive metrics and leaves him in the 90th percentile (top 10%) of the URC. His tackle success, total ruck entires and attack ruck entires all leave him in the bottom 25% of URC loose forwards.

Ben-Jason Dixon

Ben-Jason Dixon’s stats show a great amount of efficiency. With high gainline success and tackles low % leaving him in the higher percentiles, demonstrating his effectiveness on both sides of the ball. His lowest metric percentile is for his carrying. However, playing in a team with carriers like Roos, Dayimani, van Heerden, Dweba, Venter, and Moerat reduces the need for him to carry frequently. Dixon makes many tackles, has a high work rate, plays lock and blindside flank, and is heavily involved in lineout contributions, leading to comparisons with Pieter-Steph du Toit.

Marco van Staden

Marco van Staden’s standout features are his breakdown turnovers (0.48 per 80) and overall turnovers won (0.67 per 80), which are critical in disrupting opposition play. His offensive stats, with 8.57 carries and 14.15 contact metres per 80, alongside a 56% gainline success rate, show his dual threat in attack and defense. Lineout’s aside, his radar shows that he is very well rounded, offering high percentiles across most metrics. Van Staden is competition for Siya Kolisi’s position of openside, yet is different in the sense that he offers more of a direct breakdown threat. However, they are similar in their lack of lineout contributions and high work rates. Van Staden will not be able to offer the same dynamism Kolisi offers in this ball-carrying in the wider channels.

Phepsi Buthelezi

Phepsi Buthelezi brings a balanced grouping of stats without being outstanding at one thing in particular. He is a dynamic ball-carrier who got better for the Sharks as the Springboks returned and allowed him to carry more in the wider channels where he puts his speed to best use. His 10.17 contact metres per 80 puts him in the 63rd percentile and his defenders beaten of 1.39 per 80 places him in the 62nd percentile. Buthelezi’s versatility is probably what is most exciting about him. With a very similar style to Kolisi, but offering a lineout option that Siya has never been able to. It will be interesting to see how he would be used in a Bok jersey if given the chance.

Evan Roos

Evan Roos excels as a ball carrier, with 12.71 carries and 16.6 contact metres per 80 minutes, complemented by a 59% gainline success rate and 59% gainline success - all of which have him in the top percentiles of URC loose forwards. Defensively, the stats show he is a breakdown threat without being someone who attends many rucks. He is also in the lower percentiles for tackling. Other Springbok No.8’s, like Jasper Wiese, also have a particularly strong emphasis on ball-carrying compared to other areas of the game. Context is also crucial, as Roos is obviously going to attend less attacking rucks if he is being expected to be doing the carrying himself. Penalties Conceded definitely a work on.

Cameron Hanekom

At only 22 years old, Cameron Hanekom’s stats are truly something to behold. His well-rounded skill set is evident across various metrics, offering the most ‘coverage’ of the radar chart compared to the other contenders. With 11.2 carries, 16.8 contact metres, and a 58% gainline success rate per 80 minutes, he demonstrates devastating ball-carrying. However, he couples this attacking prowess with a ever present threat of turning over opposition ball. Additionally, he makes 13.38 tackles per 80 with a 91% success rate and makes 0.92 dominant tackles per 80 - leaving him in the 83rd percentile. Hanekom’s power, speed and versatility leave him an incredibly exciting prospect. He is the only contender whose ball-carrying, tackle dominance and turnovers sit in the highest percentiles.

Conclusion

Despite many of these players regular position being No.8, it doesn’t excluded them from playing in the same loose forward trio together. It is very plausible that we see a Springbok trio that included 2 or even 3 of Hanekom, Roos, Louw and Buthelezi. With the evolving Springbok gameplan requiring more dynamic carrying from its loose forwards, like what we have seen from PSDT and Kolisi in the wider channels, these young versatile ball-carrying players could be provided more opportunities to perform roles outside of the No.8 jersey.

While players like Dixon and van Staden have a far clearer and more defined roles that they are vying for, that won’t make their battle for the position any easier. Another noticeable absentee of recent fixtures is Jasper Wiese, is still only 28, who will certainly have something to say about the No.8 jersey once he returns from suspension.

Replacing the trio of Kolisi, PSDT and Vermeulen was never going to be easy. But with the talent available, the future is certainly bright.