Flyhalf Dynamics: Unveiling the Stats behind the Springbok 10's

A look at the stats driving Pollard, Libbok and Willemse.

For much of the past 8 years, South African fans have become accustomed to seeing the same two faces wearing the iconic number 10 jersey - Handrè Pollard and Elton Jantjies. The pair has battled it out over the years, with Pollard becoming the undoubted first choice when Rassie Erasmus took over in 2018. However, in the past few years, we have seen Pollard struggle with injuries and Jantjies grapple with off-field issues, forcing the hand of the Springbok coaching staff to introduce new flyhalves.

Despite starting all of the 2022 Autumn tests at flyhalf, Willemse made way in 2023 for Libbok, who started five of the six games played in the build-up to the RWC.

The Flyhalf Options

Using Oval Insights data, I have examined the differences in Pollard’s and Libbok’s statistics, gaining insights into their strengths and weaknesses.

When examining the duo's stats since July 2022, both at the club and international levels, it provides us with a clear picture of the type of flyhalf each player is.

Pollard scores more points per 80, likely due to his greater accuracy as a goal kicker and a higher rate of tries per 80. He also carries the ball more frequently at the Test level, albeit in a very different manner than what you would expect from Libbok. Pollard also crosses the gainline more often, utilising his 1.88m frame to power his way over. Defensively, the pair are quite similar, with Pollard attempting more tackles and achieving a better success rate for both club and country. However, considering his substantial size advantage over Libbok, these numbers are still lower than expected.

Finally, Pollard leads in goal-kicking accuracy, averaging 84% for both club and country. Interestingly, Pollard's kicking meters are much higher than Libbok's at the Test level, but the numbers are reversed at the club level. This club-level difference likely stems from variations in gameplans, while the Test-level difference could be attributed to changes in the Springbok style between 2022 and 2023, with the Boks kicking less in 2023 than in previous years.

Libbok has played more Test and club minutes than Pollard since July 2022, providing more try assists and offloads per 80, while also making fewer handling errors at the Test level. Libbok has also gained more meters and beaten more defenders per 80 than Pollard. Libbok carries the ball more at the club level, as shown by his 7.28 carries per 80. Despite achieving a perfect 5/5 goal-kicking record against the All Blacks at Twickenham, Libbok's Test average goal-kicking accuracy remains at 67.5%. The strengths of each player are evident, and apart from handling errors, kicking meters, and carries, both the club and Test statistics consistently highlight their respective strengths.

Adding Damian Willemse to this comparison yields some interesting findings.

Willemse’s offloads, carries, crossed gainlines, defenders beaten and tackle attempts per 80 all completely overshadow his rivals. Which is even more incredible when taking into account that three of those matches were vs New Zealand (Away), Ireland (Away) and France (Away). Notably, he is clearly the best defender of the three, which is to be expected considering his ability to play 12 and 15.

Data does not have always have the answers

So on the data above alone, you would assume Damian Willemse is the best flyhalf option available (if you had another player able to take over goal-

kicking). However, this is not always the case. The role of a flyhalf is far greater than just beating defenders, making metres and crossing gainlines. Flyhalves have to control the pace of the game alongside their scrumhalf, they need to manage a territory battle, they need to know when to pass and when to carry. These are not easily brought out in data.

This could be exactly why Damian Willemse’s stats were so high, because he was carrying when he shouldn’t be. To look into this I looked at “Turnovers Lost” and found that Libbok conceded 1.36 turnovers per 80 mins compared to Willemse’s 3.08 per 80. This is evidence that Willemse could have been carrying at times he really shouldn’t be, when playing flyhalf.

Flyhalf and Scrumhalf Combinations

Manie Libbok has now started with each of the above scrumhalves, and would have had started with Grant Williams if it weren’t for his concussion in the 10th second of the Argentina match (I have not counted this as a start). Libbok also has a 100% win record from starts to date. Interestingly, since Jul 2022, Damian Willemse has more starts at flyhalf than any other Springbok.

Goal-Kicking

With Manie Libbok likely to take on the Springbok kicking duties in the 2023 RWC, I have had a look at every single Test kick he has taken. Below is a gif of all the goal-kicks he has taken by match, followed by all of his goal-kicks plotted onto one pitch map.

Among these kicks, Libbok truly shouldn't have missed any of the five kicks missed within the circle below, which would have resulted in a much more respectable 32/40, or an 80% goal-kicking accuracy.

Former Springbok attack coach Swys de Bruin discussed Libbok’s 'angle of attack' when setting up for kicks in a recent video from SuperSport. This detail could prove significant to watch in the upcoming weeks.

Conclusion

Both Manie Libbok and Handrè Pollard have areas they could improve on, but discrediting either of them would be illogical. And the only truth is that the Boks will be stronger for having both of them in a squad, whenever that may be.

Libbok is the only genuine flyhalf currently in the Springbok RWC squad, with Pollard returning to the Leicester Tigers after the Test against the All Blacks at Twickenham. Pollard will remain on standby for the Springboks in case of an injury. This leaves Libbok as the frontrunner to start the majority of the Pool matches, allowing him to further develop his game in Springbok colours. Only time will tell how he fares when the pressure is on, but he has certainly earned his spot.