All Blacks vs Springboks - How the match was won and lost.

What are the main takeaways from the battle in Auckland.

On Saturday 15 July 2023 we got to see the age old battle between the All Blacks and the Springboks unfold in Auckland at the Mount Smart Stadium.

All Black Tempo - Speed Kills:

The All Blacks started the game with a high tempo, looking to have as few rucks as possible. This has always been a good way to disrupt the Springbok defence as the system relies heavily on structured play, as they are unable to get the required line-speed when the game becomes too loose.

The only way to counter this is to have dominant tackles of “man and ball” or to disrupt the few rucks that do occur - either through contesting over the ball (for a turnover) or slowing the recycling of the ball (through general breakdown disruption). The Boks struggled in this area in the first quarter, with the All Blacks running riot and taking an early 17-0 lead after 16 minutes.

The Boks may have missed a trick in not starting Pieter-Steph du Toit and Malcolm Marx in a game like this. Marx in particular is usually saved for the second half when the game opens up. In the end, the first 20 minutes were the most open and free flowing part of to the game.

There was also a the lack of dominance in the tackle. Generally, the Springbok’s highest performers in recent years in “dominant tackles” have been Siya Kolisi, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Eben Etzebeth, Frans Malherbe and Jasper Wiese. With two of those players not starting, and Wiese looking off it on the night, the Boks really struggled to make any dominant hits to slow down the blitz rugby being played.

Springbok Loose Forwards:

It would be crazy to judge any players on one performance in the most difficult city on earth to win rugby matches. However, there are a few questions around the best Bok loose-trio that will need to be addressed over the coming weeks.

Jasper Wiese:

Not his best outing. Lacked the usual gain line dominance he has on both attack and defence. He has always been slightly more one-dimensional than his competition, he doesn’t offer a genuine lineout option and he isn’t prolific at the breakdown, but has been incredibly strong in the parts of the game he does offer. I feel today may have just been an off day for Jasper.

Worth noting that he missed some training over the past 12 days due to the birth of his child. This also meant he didn’t fly out early with the rest of the group to NZ.

Duane Vermuelen was good in this short cameo, following up an excellent performance last weekend vs Australia. He is still showing that age is just a number.

Franco Mostert:

He has been used quite often at blindside flank over the past few years, but has never quite reached the heights of PSdT. Mostert offers less dynamism in his ball carrying and, although good in defence, is not as disruptive as PSdT who uses his excellent linespeed and timing to cause chaos.

I think most will agree that blindside is not his best position.

Kwagga Smith:

Scored a brilliant opportunist try in the closing minutes but struggled to have his usual impact at the breakdown. With the All Blacks limiting rucks and having excellent support runners to clear at the breakdown, the Boks struggled to make the breakdown a contest at all. With Marco van Staden putting in a huge shift last weekend, there could be some pressure on Kwagga over the coming weeks. There is also the small matter of Siya Kolisi’s return on the horizon too.

Again worth noting that performances the Australia test at Loftus and the All Blacks test in Auckland are not comparable. One is far more of a challenge than the other.

Springbok Defence:

As mentioned above, the All Blacks tempo made it very difficult for the Boks to setup defensively. However, they also slipped far too many tackles. 19 missed tackles in the first half alone. Many being low ankle tackles that allowed the All Black ball carriers to get over the gain line as there was physically no presence in the available space stopping them. Compare this to the All Blacks who mainly doubled up in their tackles and hit players in the torso, stopping the momentum dead.

Once the game slowed down, you could see how much easier the Bok’s defensive line found things. Actually managing to drive the All Blacks backwards on a few occasions. And that is the unfortunate takeaway from this match. SPEED KILLS the Springboks. Although, it is the same with any defence in rugby, it is particularly damaging in a rush defence system like the Boks have.

I still feel Kurt-Lee Arendse is a perfect fit for a game against the All Blacks. With one of their main tactics being the kick pass out wide, there is no better Bok at being able to adjust or turn quickly to recover and make a tackle or gather the kick. That is totally aside from his lethal attacking threat.

For the Springboks it is a simple formula. When defending, the more rucks and set pieces, the better.

The Aerial Contest:

For years many Bok fans have associated kicking to both losing matches and playing boring rugby. Today, the All Blacks kicked 28 times to the Springboks 14. Compare that to the 30 kicks from hand that the Boks had in the 43-12 thrashing of the Wallabies last weekend. That performance certainly wasn’t boring, nor was today’s performance by the All Blacks. Statistically, over the past decade, teams that kick more - win more.

The Boks have always prided themselves on a good aerial game, with players like Mapimpi, Kolbe, Arendse and Moodie known for being able to compete and win box kicks more than not. However, this was far from the case today. The Springboks were dominated in the aerial battle, and that was mostly when trying to defend kicks put up by New Zealand. The “glove” (support runners meant to legally block kick chasers) did not function well and Willemse, Mapimpi and Kolbe all struggled under the high ball.

Willemse has struggled under the high ball in recent times, notably in the URC vs Munster, despite being one of the best in the world under the high ball between 2021-2022. This could be down to a lack of game time at 15 or a confidence issue.

Yet, the ever timeless Willie Le Roux seems to be getting… Better? Good under the high ball again and led the way in some crucial attacking plays. Including the pass for the Kolbe try. He has also improved in his open play kicking for touch, where he seems to have gained 10 metres distance on what he was getting over the past 2 years. He continues to remain such an important player for the Springboks.

Time to end the Bomb Squad?

Steven Kitshoff has been incredible recently. Whether it be for the Stormers in their run to the URC final or for the Springboks both last weekend vs Australia and today vs the All Blacks. It is so difficult to leave him out of a starting 15. However, Ox Nche has also been excellent recently, particularly at scrum time, but he was unfortunately injured in the build up to the Australia test. The main difference is the ability around the park, where Nche can’t offer the breakdown presence that Kitshoff does, nor the same workrate.

Obviously, the bigger question revolves around Malcolm Marx. The last time he started against the All Blacks was in the 26-10 Springbok victory last year. Where he made five breakdown turnovers, and killed any momentum the All Blacks attempted to gain. He is so important in matches where the opponent relies on fast ball from the breakdown (like the All Blacks).

I have always understood why the Boks kept Kitshoff and Marx on the bench, this being the more open nature of the later stages of the match. However, I am starting to believe that in certain matches like those against the All Blacks, require Kitshoff and Marx to start. With Ox Nche and Bongi Mbonambi starting in the matches that will be a slower grind to begin with, like France or England. This logic all depends on Ox Nche returning to full fitness.

The Positives:

Siya Kolisi and Handre Pollard are still to return. Kolisi brings so much value to the Springboks, and him being fit will make a world of difference. From his hard work in and around the rucks to his ability to aid the attack when the game gets loose, he is a integral cog in the Springbok machine. He inspires his players and is of the Springbok Captain.

Pollard has also been missed by the Springboks, he is a commander behind the forwards and adds another leader to the group. He is comfortably our most accurate goal kicker, is good in the air and has a strong tactical kicking game. His return will certainly strengthen this Bok team.

Ox Nche will hopefully return too, and he is so important to the Springbok gameplan of scrum dominance. Some of today’s performances may also lead to Andre Esterhuizen, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Marco van Staden getting more opportunities in the coming weeks to prove themselves.

We have seen in previous years that the All Blacks have struggled at times to handle the pressure of a rush defence. Evidenced by the Springboks and France. The moments often end up with a player swinging the ball out wide to nobody or over the heads of players under the pressure. But not today, this was a performance that lacked those mistakes. And if that is a “near perfect” All Black performance and also a “poor” Springbok performance, in a match played in New Zealand, then the fact that the Boks still made a game of it in the second half should leave the Bok coaching staff with a few positive takeaways.

The Boks won’t be so poor next time, and you will not see so many unforced errors from senior players again. Similarly, the All Blacks won’t be at home when the sides next meet, and they are unlikely to have such an error free performance again. Especially if more pressure is placed on them.

Only time will tell, but this loss really isn’t the end of the world for the Springboks. It may just be the beginning of some change.